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KwaZulu-Natal Business 2022-23

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The 2022/23 edition of KwaZulu-Natal Business is the 14th issue of this highly successful publication that, since its launch in 2008, has established itself as the premier business and investment guide for the KwaZulu-Natal Province. In addition to the regular articles providing insight into each of the key economic sectors of the province, there is a special feature on national government’s campaign to encourage private investment in ports. The vital role of the ports of Durban and Richards Bay in the South African economy cannot be understated and putting them in a better position to deal with commodities and cargoes of every sort is clearly in the national interest. A special purpose vehicle is to be created within Transnet to make dealing with private companies less complicated. The increasing importance of the Oceans Economy to the future of the provincial and national economy is relevant to any examination of the economy of KwaZulu-Natal. This applies as much to trade and ship-repair as it does to the exciting gas discoveries which have been made off the coast of Mozambique and South Africa.

FOCUS Offshore

FOCUS Offshore exploration will benefit the KwaZulu-Natal economy The CEO of Petroleum Agency South Africa CEO, Dr Phindile Masangane, explains how gas can drive economic growth and play a role in the transition to a clean energy future. Today the biggest threat to humanity is climate change and the biggest threat to South Africa’s social stability is the high unemployment rate, which has primarily been caused by economic stagnation. As the global economy recovers from the devastating effects of Covid-19, demand for oil and gas has gone up significantly. If there was ever a need for proof that oil and gas still drive the global economy, recent statistics demonstrate the trend. The world’s developed economies industrialised on the back of oil and gas production and use. Now, just as Africa is on the cusp of being a significant gas producer and is making plans to use such gas for power generation, industrialisation and economic growth, the negative effect of greenhouse gas emissions on the environment has become undeniable. The urgency for action to mitigate the risk of climate change is no longer debatable. Between 1990 and 2018 the top five emitters have produced more than 50% of greenhouse gas emissions. During the same period South Africa has contributed 1% to global emissions. This is by no measure insignificant, and as a responsible global citizen South Africa must take steps to reduce its carbon footprint. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was established in 1992 to coordinate the global response to mitigate the threat of climate change, and specifically to get countries to commit to policies and plans that will ensure that the average global temperature rise is kept less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposes that to achieve this goal the world’s energy sector must reach net zero emissions by 2050. In its global energy net zero 2050 pathway, the IEA acknowledges that there is no single pathway to this goal, as developed and developing countries face different socioeconomic challenges and have contributed disproportionately to greenhouse gas emissions to date. Country-specific pathways What a number of environmental interest groups seem to be ignoring in the IEA “Net Zero by 2050” report is the acknowledgment that there will be a differentiated approach to a clean energy future, taking into consideration the cost of the new clean energy technologies and the economic consequences of transitioning for each country. The IEA emphasises that each country must develop its own pathway to a net zero emission future. South Africa’s economy has been predominantly powered by coal, which is also a KWAZULU-NATAL BUSINESS 2022/23 34

significant contributor to the country’s economy in terms of GDP as well as employment. Of all primary energy resources coal is the most carbon-intensive, and South Africa therefore has a relatively high carbon-intensive economy, contributing about 1% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to coal, South Africa imports oil, gas and petroleum products for its energy needs as the upstream petroleum industry is still at a nascent stage. The two recent world-class gas discoveries in the Outeniqua basin off the south coast of the country are the biggest petroleum discoveries made in South Africa. The development of these discoveries has the potential to replace more than 2 300MW of diesel-fired electricity generation in Gourikwa, Dedisa and Ankerlig, thereby reducing the carbon emissions from these plants by more than 50% while eliminating sulphur oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions, which are also harmful to the environment. Gas is therefore an obvious bridge to a lower carbon future in South Africa. Importantly, these gas discoveries could restore the gas-to-liquid refinery in Mossel Bay to full production and profitability, saving about 1 200 direct jobs. A complete shutdown and abandonment of this refinery would not only lead to job losses at the refinery, but the effects would reverberate throughout the town of Mossel Bay and the Southern Cape region, since the refinery contributes about R2-billion a year, or 26% of the Mossel Bay economy, and 6% to the Southern Cape economy when producing at full capacity. The Petroleum Agency South Africa awaits the licensee of these gas discoveries submitting its production right and environmental authorisation applications when the exploration right expires, or earlier. The agency expects the licensee to use worldclass technologies and standards to minimise the effects of the gas and gas condensate production on the environment, while maximising the in-country benefit or local content from this development to support South Africa’s economic recovery. These discoveries could indeed support both the country’s economic recovery and its transition to a clean energy future. ■ Database management The continental shelf of the Republic of South Africa covers some 200 000km² and the country has a coastline approximately 3 000km in length. Petroleum Agency SA is responsible for the archive and management of the national hydrocarbon exploration database on behalf of the State. It has digitised, indexed and archived all of the data and reports resulting from the drilling of more than 300 offshore and some 200 onshore boreholes. The exploration database also include seismic field and processed data for more than 300 000km of 2D and 40 000km² of 3D seismic data that was acquired offshore and some 9 800km of seismic processed data that was acquired during the late 1960s in the Karoo, Algoa and Zululand onshore basins. Being the custodian of the National Petroleum Exploration and Production Database of South Africa, the Agency relies on a sustainable and effective Information Management Infrastructure in order to comply with its mandate to: • Archive and maintain a database on petroleum exploration and production data. • Provide access to existing data, cores, well samples, information and literature on request. • Add value and incorporate new as well as interpreted data into the database. • Maintain records of all hydrocarbon exploration and production activities. CONTACT DETAILS Tel: +27 21 938 3500 Email: plu@petroleumagencysa.com Website: www.petroleumagencysa.com 35 KWAZULU-NATAL BUSINESS 2022/23

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