AGRICULTUREFair prices
AGRICULTUREFair prices for a fairer futureWithout thriving smallholder farmers, South Africa’s food security and rural economiesare at risk. Be Fair Right Now invites South Africans to rethink their buying choices.Fair pricing helps smallholder farmers survive.Smallholder farmers and workers are the backbone ofglobal food production, supplying nearly one-third ofthe world’s food. Despite their essential role, these farmersand workers are often trapped in cycles of poverty dueto unfair global market practices that undervalue their work andproducts. Now, more than ever, fair pricing is critical to securingtheir livelihoods, building resilient communities and addressingglobal challenges like food security and climate change.In South Africa, there are over two-million smallholder orhousehold farmers compared to just 35 000 commercial growers.Many of these smallholder farmers depend on their land not onlyto feed their families but also to produce surplus crops for tradeor income. However, their hard work and vital contributions areunder increasing threat.“Farming sustains 40% of the global population, particularlyin rural areas where it is the primary source of income,” says PaulColditz, Commercial Director at Fairtrade Africa. “Smallholderfarmers, who manage plots often smaller than 10ha, compete inglobal markets under extremely challenging conditions. Withoutfair prices, they face precarious livelihoods that limit their abilityto invest in sustainable practices or protect against climate risks.”In South Africa, these challenges are compounded by thechanging climate. Extreme weather events, including droughts,floods, heatwaves and excessive winds, are becoming morefrequent. These events damage crops, erode soils and reducethe ability of land to sustain grazing livestock or support cropyields. This not only affects local food security for millions but alsoundermines the livelihoods of smallholder farmers.Fair pricing offers a solution. Fairtrade’s minimum price modelensures producers receive a baseline safety net when marketprices drop, enabling them to cover basic needs and reinvest insustainable farming methods. Additionally, long-term contractsfoster stability and empower farmers to plan ahead, weather crisesand combat climate-related challenges.“Fair pricing isn’t just about economic justice,” Colditz explains.“It’s about ensuring that the people who grow our food have thedignity of a sustainable livelihood and the means to contribute toa healthier planet.”Fairtrade Africa urges businesses, policymakers and consumersto support initiatives that advocate for equitable pricing andpartnerships with smallholders. Together, these actions can securebetter futures for millions of farmers and a more resilient globalfood system.The latest “Be Fair Right Now” initiative shines a spotlight onthe urgent need for change, calling for immediate attention tothe inequities smallholders face and challenging stakeholders– from consumers to businesses – to demand fairer practices insupply chains.Now in its second year, Be Fair Right Now invites SouthAfricans to rethink their buying choices to support fairer pay aswell as gender equality, environmental sustainability and climateaction. Through Fairtrade’s interactive online quiz, participantscan discover the impact of their current purchases and explorepractical ways to support Fairtrade-certified products that paysmallholder farmers fairly.“Fairness in trade affects us all. Without thriving smallholderfarmers, South Africa’s food security and rural economies are atrisk. Fair pricing strengthens communities, reduces poverty andpromotes sustainable agricultural practices essential to combatingclimate change,” Colditz reiterates.To participate, South Africans can visit Fairtrade’s campaignpage, take the quiz and discover how their choices can supportfairer prices for essential commodities like sugar, coffee and tea.Be Fair Right Now: https://befairrightnow-sa.org48 | www.opportunityonline.co.zaPHOTO: John Young
Economic dataThe South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) regularly publishes economic data relatingto business confidence and trade, the SACCI Business Confidence Index and the Trade Conditions Survey. TheAbsa/SACCI Small Business Growth Index (SBGI) was launched in February 2025 with the Bureau of MarketSACCI Business Confidence Index – March 2025Research as the research partner. For more statistics, see www.sacci.org.za and www.bmr.co.zaBUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEXUpholding positive business sentimentPositive business sentiment was served by improved business prospects sinceJune 2024. The BCI increased gradually from a depressed level of 107.8 in May2024 (month of elections) to a level of 125.8 in February 2025, an 18.0 surgeon May 2024. The most positive short-term impacts were caused by increasedtourism and exports and lower inflation. Fewer imports, a weaker rand anddeclining share prices on the JSE imposed the largest negative impact. Decliningmerchandise export volumes, real interest rates that remained relatively high andmanufacturing output which declined on a year ago weighed negatively. The newadministration of the US entered the world’s economic and business fraternitywith a different and abrupt approach. The fiscal predicament in which SouthAfrica finds itself is best captured by the trend in government debt, exacerbatedby financing recurrent expenditure by borrowing. The postponement of the2025/26 Budget in February 2025 was a unique opportunity to reset the slopeto South Africa’s economic future. Despite mounting global uncertainties, SouthAfrican business and financial markets handled the challenging circumstanceswith relative calm. Although business confidence in South Africa remainedrelatively high and stable after strong improvement up to February 2025, there isno room for complacency. Global uncertainty, the possibility of trade disruption,tariff barriers and adapting to a changing global environment have becomecritically important.SACCI TRADE CONDITIONS SURVEYTrade outlook moderatesIn February 2025 respondents experienced the best conditions since theformation of the GNU in June 2024. However, with 65% and 60% of therespondents experiencing tight trade conditions in December and January, the54% still facing tough conditions in February indicates a reasonable easing oftrade conditions. It appears that the actions of the GNU to enhance economicperformance are having a positive effect. However, the trade outlook for thesix months ahead moderated slightly from December to February, probablyreflecting the reality that although the reset of the economy is on the agenda ofthe GNU, the restoration process is not a quick fix. Recently released GDP data forthe wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants sector showed a decline of1.4% y/y in output in 2024. However, the y/y decrease in the first three quartersof 2024 was replaced by an increase of 1.6% y/y in the fourth quarter. With animport propensity of 31% of domestic expenditure and exports at 32% of localoutput, the importance of international trade and its linkages in the economyplay a pivotal role. Regardless of the better trade conditions in February 2025,only 33% of the respondents employed more staff, while 44% intend to employmore people in the next six months despite a trade outlook that is anticipatedto weaken.% Positive80706050403020Jan-15Jun-15Nov-15Apr-16Sep-16Feb-17Jul-17The SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI)SACCI Business Confidence Index – March 20252020 = 100The SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI)Month 2018 2019 2020 20202021 = 100 2022 2023 2024 2025January 115.3 109.9 106.6 109.2 108.8 112.9 112.3 120.0February 114.3 108.0 107.2 109.0 112.0 111.9 114.7 125.8MarchMonth 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023112.8 106.1 103.9 108.7 110.5 111.32024114.72025123.5April 111.0 108.3 89.9 109.5 108.3 107.1 108.9JanuaryMay115.3 109.9 106.6 109.2 108.8 112.9 112.3 120.0108.7 107.5 81.0 112.1 103.2 106.9 107.8FebruaryJune114.3 108.0 107.2 109.0108.3 107.9 94.1 111.2 108.5112.0 111.9 114.7 125.8108.8 109.0JulyMarch 112.8 106.1 103.9 108.7109.5 106.4 95.7 107.7 110.3 110.5 107.3111.3109.1114.7 123.5April 111.0 108.3 89.9 109.5 108.3 107.1 108.9August 104.6 103.0 99.2 106.2 105.6 108.6 111.5May 108.7 107.5 81.0 112.1 103.2 106.9 107.8September 107.9 106.8 99.1 105.2 110.9 108.2 110.2JuneOctober108.3 107.9 94.1 111.2 108.5 108.8 109.0110.8 106.0 106.4 109.7 109.4 108.6 114.2NovemberJuly111.1109.5107.2106.4108.095.7107.3107.7 110.3 107.3 109.1110.9 111.5 118.1DecemberAugust110.1104.6107.6103.0109.099.2106.4106.2 117.3105.6112.1108.6121.0111.5September 107.9 106.8 99.1 105.2 110.9 108.2 110.2OctoberAverage 110.4110.8107.1106.0100.0106.4108.5109.7 109.4 108.6 114.2109.6 109.6 112.6November 111.1 107.2 108.0 107.3 110.9 111.5 118.1December 110.1 107.6 109.0 106.4 117.3 112.1 121.0Average 110.4 107.1 100.0 108.5 109.6 109.6 112.6IndexIndex1601501401601301501201401101301001209011080100709060807060Dec-17SACCI Trade Conditions Survey February 2025South African Chamber of Commerce and IndustryBCI 2020 = 100Trade Conditions IndexMay-18Oct-18Mar-19Aug-19Jan-20SACCI Business Confidence IndexJun-20Nov-20Apr-21Trade Conditions SurveyDownward phase of the business cycleCurrentDownward Six month expectations phase of the business cycleSep-21Feb-22Jul-22Dec-22May-23February 2025Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19% of respondentsJan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25BCI 2020 = 100SACCI Business Confidence IndexOct-23Mar-24Aug-24Jan-25Current Trade Conditions Index (TAI)*100908070605040Jan-15Jun-15Nov-15Apr-16Sep-16Feb-17Jul-17Dec-17May-18Input costsJan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Oct-18Mar-19Aug-19Jan-20Jun-20CurrentSix month expectations2Activity Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25Sales volumes 43 37 40 37 41 472New orders 33 32 33 28 41 53Backlog on orders received 33 29 25 20 26 33Supplier deliveries 40 34 38 35 38 47Inventory level 40 34 40 35 44 47Selling prices 48 50 55 57 62 61Input prices 63 74 68 65 65 67Employment 25 32 45 41 38 33TAI 35 34 38 35 40 46TAI seasonally adjusted 36 29 37 44 36 43Note: The indices are diffusion indices and vary between 0 and 100. At 50 an index reflectsa 'no change' situation and above or below 50 implies a positive or a negative readingdepending on the trade component.* The TAI is the composite index of sales volumes, new orders, supplier deliveries,inventory levels and employment.Expected Trade Conditions Index (TEI)*Activity Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25Sales volumes 65 58 65 72 68 72New orders 70 61 68 72 71 64Backlog on orders received 38 29 43 46 47 44Supplier deliveries 58 50 58 61 68 67Inventory level 60 53 55 48 59 58Selling prices 58 68 70 72 82 86Input prices 63 84 85 85 94 94Employment 58 42 55 57 56 44TEI 63 54 62 65 65 62TEI seasonally adjusted 64 52 60 75 60 56* The TEI is the composite index of expectations on sales volumes, new orders, supplierdeliveries, inventory levels and employment.The expectations are a six month outlookNov-20Apr-21Sep-21Feb-22Jul-22Dec-22May-23Oct-23Mar-24Aug-24Jan-25www.opportunityonline.co.za | 49
